Dispatch Japan

Noda administration: ‘Mainstream’ holds sway in ‘unified’ DPJ

Prime Minister-designate Yoshihiko Noda hit the ground running, moving quickly to name the four top executives of the ruling Democratic Party (DPJ), while also working to put together a cabinet.

On the surface, the party appointments seem in line with Noda’s commitment to unify a DPJ deeply divided between pro-Ozawa forces, anti-Ozawa ‘mainstream’ forces, and centrists not allied with either of those camps.

A close look, however, shows that while Noda is cleverly involving in his administration some people associated with DPJ strongman Ichiro Ozawa, he otherwise is carefully proceeding on both the policy and political fronts in a direction that might not sit well with the Ozawa camp.

As secretary-general of the DPJ, for example, Noda has tapped Azuma Koshiishi, a long-time Ozawa associate who heads the DPJ caucus in the Upper House. But at 75, it is doubtful Koshiishi will have the energy and power to steer party financial resources or personnel appointments in Ozawa’s direction. The public ‘face’ of the DPJ is more likely to be new Acting DPJ President Shinji Tarutoko, who has deliberately distanced himself from Ozawa for over a year.

Also likely to eclipse Koshiishi will be Seiji Maehara, whom Noda has appointed chief of the DPJ’s Policy Research Committee (PRC). Maehara, who placed a disappointing third in Monday’s race for the DPJ presidency, is one of the pillars of opposition to Ozawa within the DPJ. Noda has promised that as PRC chief, Maehara will have considerable influence over legislation promoted by the government, and also a huge role in DPJ coordination efforts with opposition parties.

Noda says he is committed to a three-party agreement accepted by the DPJ several weeks ago -- over Ozawa’s protests -- to alter aspects of the party’s 2009 manifesto. Maehara supports that stance. And as chief of the DPJ’s Upper House caucus, where efforts to coordinate with the opposition LDP and Komeito will be particularly important, Koshiishi will have a hard time siding with Ozawa against Noda’s instructions to seek better communication with the opposition.

     FORMING A CABINET: Having filled the DPJ’s top executive positions, Noda is now working to form his cabinet. His most critical choice will be for chief cabinet secretary. Does he go ‘big,’ with a political and policy heavyweight like current Secretary General Katsuya Okada? Or does he go ‘small,’ with someone with less gravitas, such as former DPJ Secretary General Tatsuo Kawabata, DPJ Deputy Secretary General Osamu Fujimura, or Koriki Jojima, currently deputy of the DPJ’s PRC. Okada would bring experience to the job and could quickly help stabilize the new administration. But he might overshadow Noda, and raise questions in the public mind about who would actually be running the government. Noda wants and needs Okada, who was critical to Noda’s victory and could wind up instead as finance minister.

On the other hand, none of the ‘small’ candidates would overshadow Noda, and would each bring particular skills. Kawabata served as DPJ secretary general before the party came to power, and informally leads the DPJ Diet members who hail from the old Democratic Socialist Party. He has carefully placed himself within the DPJ between Ozawa and mainstream figures like Okada. Fujimura is a very close Noda associate and played a key role in lining up support for Noda’s election as DPJ president. Jojima played an important role in forging the 3-party agreement to review some DPJ policies, so he is in synch with Noda on that front.

Other key figures to watch:

Michihiko Kano, the current agriculture minister, who lost in the first round of the DPJ presidential race but then steered his supporters to vote for Noda. Kano has been in agreement with Ozawa in opposing a rapid opening of Japan’s agricultural markets through participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership TPP) trade talks. But he was outraged at tactics Ozawa used in the election to try to gather votes for his candidate, Banri Kaieda. Noda will probably reward Kano with continued membership in the Cabinet.

Yukio Edano, currently chief cabinet secretary, won much praise for his calming demeanor during the Fukushima nuclear emergency. But he could wind up sitting on the sidelines for a while, preparing for a future run for prime minister. Edano is very close to the DPJ’s other heavyweight, Acting President Yoshito Sengoku, whose stature has suffered in recent days due to missteps taken in coordinating Seiji Maehara’s campaign to replace the outgoing Naoto Kan.

Akihisa Nagashima, former parliamentary vice minister of defense, is being widely-talked about to run either the foreign or defense ministry.

'Severe confrontation' rocks DPJ

(Editor's note: Due to loss of electrical power stemming from Hurricane Irene, this report must be quite short. We apologize for any inconvenience.)

Voting to replace Naoto Kan as president of the Democratic Party of Japan, and prime minister, will begin in about one hour, in what is shaping up to be the most serious conflict inside the DPJ in recent memory. The top vote getter will likely be Trade Minister Banri Kaieda, but he will fall short of the 50% majority required to claim victory. That will force a runoff between the second-place finisher: either former Foreign Minister Seiji Maehara or Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda.

Stripped to its essentials, the battle pits legendary political heavyweight Ichiro Ozawa against 'mainstream' forces in the DPJ who oppose Ozawa's machine-style approach to electoral politics. It's a battle neither side can afford to lose.

Ozawa's backing will likely enable Kaieda to win the first round, but Kaieda's perceived willingness to do Ozawa's bidding could hurt him severely in the second round. In two debates over the weekend, Kaieda made no effort to disguise his decision to align with Ozawa.

On Sunday night, DPJ Secretary General Katsuya Okada and former Secretary General Yoshito Sengoku met and agreed that the Noda and Maehara forces should unite in the second round, regardless of which one winds up taking on Kaieda. Okada backs Noda, while Sengoku backs Maehara.

Normally that would likely be sufficient for the 'mainstream' candidate to win. But Ozawa, whose power inside the DPJ has considerably slipped, is pulling out all stops to push Kaieda over the top, and avoid a humiliating personal loss.

Both sides are fighting as if there is no tomorrow -- which there very well might not be for the DPJ in its current form, regardless of who emerges on top in today's voting.

 

 

 

 

PM election: too close to call

The three top contenders to replace the departing Naoto Kan as president of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) and prime minister will face off in a nationally televised debate in Tokyo about 3 hours from now, from 2-4 pm local time. The debate could help provide some clarity to a race that is now too close to call, as many of the 398 Diet members who will cast votes on Monday have yet to make a decision, and will be paying close attention. A second debate is scheduled for Sunday.

The top contenders – Trade Minister Banri Kaieda, Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda, and former Foreign Minister Seiji Maehara – will be joined in the debate by Agriculture Minister Michihiko Kano and former Transport Minister Sumio Mabuchi, but the latter two stand little chance of winning.

With backing from legendary party boss Ichiro Ozawa and former Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, Kaieda seems likely to emerge Monday as the top vote-getter. But he is unlikely to win a 50% majority, triggering a runoff with the contender who finishes second.

Eyes are thus on Maehara and Noda, who will slug it out for the second spot. Once the second runoff spot is determined, will either Noda or Maehara back the other, against Kaieda? There is a great deal of mistrust between the two camps, with Noda harboring misgivings about Maehara’s main backer, DPJ power broker Yoshito Sengoku.

With so much maneuvering taking place among the various DPJ power centers in search of a winning coalition, the possibility remains that last minute deals could alter any expected outcome.

Maehara has two distinct advantages: he is a superior debater, and the latest poll from Asahi, published Saturday morning, showed him favored by 40% of voters, to only 10% for Kaieda. Even though there is not likely to be a Lower House election any time soon, making the “face” of the party less of a pressing a factor in the decision-making of each Diet member, the public’s preference cannot simply be ignored.

Maehara's weakness:  While popular with the public, Maehara is actually a controversial figure inside the DPJ, as he has staked out one of the strongest anti-Ozawa positions within the DPJ. A meeting with Ozawa earlier this week lasted only 10 minutes, and Maehara made pretty clear that he remains opposed to Ozawa regaining the influence he has lost inside the  DPJ.  It would be hard for Maehara to unify the party.

But Kaieda and Noda have weaknesses as well.

Kaieda will be seen as Ozawa's choice, and Ozawa remains one of Japan’s most unpopular political leaders, despite his entrenched (though diminished) position within the DPJ. Moreover, Kaieda  was severely criticized by his own group leader, Hatoyama, for his performance as trade and industry minister during the Fukushima nuclear emergency. Kaieda’s strength to be the national leader also came in for questioning earlier in the year when he broke down in tears during a Diet session involving Fukushima.

Noda’s weakness: He has pushed for a “grand coalition” involving the opposition LDP and Komeito, and he has advocated a quick rise in the national consumption tax. Both positions make many Diet members wary. But many members of the departing Kan’s sizeable DPJ group are leaning toward Noda.

The situation might be clearer after the first debate.