The Pentagon and other US agencies confirmed on Tuesday that North Korea had launched an intercontinental ballistic missile on Tuesday morning, Pacific time, demonstrating the speed with which Pyongyang is advancing toward its goal of a nuclear weapons capability to strike the US, and greatly escalating military tensions on the Korean Peninsula.
The US and South Korea responded with quickly-organized joint military exercises, including the test-firing of missiles into the waters off the coast of South Korea – a major show of force.
At the United Nations today, Ambassador Nikki Haley told the Security Council that the US would soon introduce a resolution strongly urging all nations to increase and enforce sanctions against North Korea, warning that the US was prepared to use all of its tools, including trade, to facilitate full cooperation with UN sanctions. Haley’s remarks were an unmistakable message to China, which is Pyongyang’s indispensable connection to the outside world.
ICBM CONFIRMATION: The US Pacific Command in Hawaii initially said the launched missile was only of intermediate range, not intercontinental. An ICBM is defined as a missile with a range exceeding 3,400 miles. But closer analysis by experts in Washington and Seoul, using data gathered from US satellites, ship-based radar, and aircraft patrolling the area, show that the missile flew 1,700 miles above the earth’s surface, traveled almost 580 miles horizontally, and was in flight for 37 minutes, longer than any previous North Korean launch. The sharp upward trajectory, North Korea says, was deliberate, so as to ensure that the rocket would fall harmlessly into the Sea of Japan. With a more normal trajectory, experts say, the missile could have traveled 4,100 miles, which is more than enough to reach any point in Alaska, though not the lower 48 US states.
In addition, US officials pointed out in briefings to reporters, the missile launched Tuesday was aided by a second, “booster” phase that greatly extends the ICBM range. The North Koreans also demonstrated unusual speed in loading liquid fuel into the missile, a process that is usually time-consuming, allowing the US, South Korea, and Japan to pick up a possible launch days in advance. The faster the fuel can be loaded, the less time available to detect a possible launch. North Korea is working on a solid fuel capability, which is much more difficult for intelligence agencies to detect.
Indeed, US officials pointed out on Tuesday, the North Koreans have made significant advances in solid-fuel rocket engines, and mobile launch capabilities, including from submarines. The mobile capabilities greatly complicate efforts to detect impending launches. The Washington Post reported that the missile launched on Tuesday, known as the Hwasong-14, “uses a new kind of indigenously built ballistic missile engine, one that North Korea unveiled with great fanfare on March 18.”
Still, Pyongyang faces two technical hurdles before it will have the ability to deliver a nuclear weapon against the continental United States. There remains no evidence that North Korea has yet been able to miniaturize a nuclear warhead to fit on the tip of an ICBM. And, as demonstrated by Tuesday’s launch, North Korean missiles do not yet have to range to reach the US.
The trend is clear, however. US officials emphasize that North Korea’s capabilities are growing quickly, and they are operating on the assumption that it is not “if,” but “when” North Korea will successfully overcome these obstacles. “Think of it as two streams – the missile, and the miniaturized warhead – coming together,” says retired Admiral James Stavridis, “I think we have about 18 months before they reach that capability.”
Indeed, Admiral Harry Harris, commander of US forces in the Pacific, told a conference in Australia recently that “I know there’s some debate about the miniaturization advancements made by Pyongyang. But Pacific Command must be prepared to fight tonight, so I take him [Kim Jong-un] at his word. I must assume his claims are true – I know his aspirations certainly are.”
PREPARING FOR THE G-20: On Monday, US officials told reporters they expected a North Korean launch sometime soon, but were paying most attention to a different launch facility than the one used Tuesday.
For hours after the launch, which came late Monday in Washington, the only White House response was a Tweet posted by President Donald Trump, broken into two parts. “North Korea has just launched another missile” Trump wrote. “Does this guy [Kim Jong-un] have anything better to do with his life? Hard to believe that South Korea….and Japan will put up with this much longer. Perhaps China will put a heavy move on North Korea and end this nonsense once and for all.”
Throughout Tuesday, top national security and military officials met at the White House throughout the day, forced to skip the Independence Day celebrations.
The gatherings culminated in a statement issued late Tuesday afternoon by Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, warning nations around the world to cut off contact with North Korea, including hosting guest workers, who become a source of revenue for the Kim regime.
This indicates that North Korea will be a much bigger subject of discussion than expected during the official Group of 20 proceedings in Hamburg, Germany, this weekend. The US plans to step up pressure for total enforcement of UN Security Council sanctions. Even before the launch, the US had been moving in that direction, including urging allies and friends to cut-off or downgrade diplomatic ties with Pyongyang.
MEETING PUTIN AND XI: Trump is scheduled to with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Most eyes have been focused on the Putin-Trump meeting, Moscow and Washington have decided to conduct as a full-fledged bilateral meeting, rather than a more casual “pull-aside”.
In the wake of the North Korea action, attention will expand to the Xi-Trump meeting.
Trump called Xi Jinping on Sunday, to talk mostly about North Korea. Trump is upset that his “friend,” Xi, with whom he supposedly bonded during a recent visit to Trump’s exclusive Florida golf resort, has not sufficiently put pressure on Pyongyang to end its nuclear program.
BEIJING, MOSCOW COORDINATE: Beijing is furious that the US imposed sanctions on a Chinese bank thought to be engaged in money laundering for Pyongyang. And Trump has moved ahead with a $1 billion arms sale to Taiwan, which China interference in its internal affairs.
After the Xi-Trump talk on Sunday, the White House said that “both leaders reaffirmed their commitment to a denuclearized Korean Peninsula.” But the White House added, as a clear warning that trade is linked to Beijing’s cooperation on North Korea. “President Trump reiterated his determination to seek more balanced trade relations with America’s trading partners.”
In a clear attempt to counter Trump, Xi traveled to Moscow after his Sunday talk with Trump, for a meeting with Putin. The two presidents proclaimed their great friendship. Subsequently, Moscow and Beijing issued a proposal for stability on the Korean Peninsula, with North Korea urged to “freeze” missile testing, and the US and South Korea to end joint military exercises. Moscow and Beijing know that Washington will never accept this, but that is the point. Moscow and Beijing are now closely aligned against the US, for different reasons, but with overlapping interests.
In addition to meeting Putin, Trump will also see Xi Jinping. This will be a very tense meeting. The “friendship” promoted by Trump after having hosted Xi at his Florida estate in April has come to a screeching halt. Trump is openly complaining about China’s not doing enough to pressure Pyongyang.
It remains unclear if the erratic US president understands the enormous diplomatic challenges he faces at the G-20 meeting this weekend.
US POLICY OPTIONS: Meanwhile, level-headed thinkers in Washington know that there is no preemptive US military actions possible to resolve the nuclear standoff without the enormous risk of triggering a calamitous war on the Korean Peninsula. Before any US military action, the US would have to evacuate the nearly100,000 Americans who live and work in South Korea. And, the US would have to win the backing of the new government in Seoul, something that is very unlikely.
The options are limited, including additional troops, aircraft, and naval capabilities in the region. The Pentagon could order a US bomber to fly over the peninsula, which President Obama once did (to little effect).
Congressman Adam Smith, a top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, told reporters today that “the only” US option is to further build up a credible deterrent, such that North Korea knows that any use of nuclear weapons would result in “the obliteration of the regime.”
There would also be grave dangers in attempts at “regime change,” via some kinds of covert actions. “The Kim regime above all wants to survive, and sees nuclear weapons as important to that effort,” says foreign policy specialist Kori Schake of the Hoover Institute at Stanford University. “If the regime feels itself crumbling, or in threat of an overthrow,” Schake says, “we might wind up with the very nuclear attack from the North that we wanted to avoid.”
The danger is that the unruly rhetoric from Trump could result in self-imposed pressure to produce results through dangerous military action.
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