Three new polls indicate that incumbent Susumu Inamine is likely to win reelection as mayor of Nago City on January 19, in what would amount to a referendum against construction of a new US Marine Corps facility in the Henoko district of the municipality.
None of the polls, conducted separately by Yomiuri Shimbun, Ryukyu Shimpo, and an Asahi Shimbun-Okinawa Times team, provides specific numbers for Inamine or his challenger, Bunshin Suematsu. But each uses the same tell-tale wording: Inamine is “leading,” while Suematsu is “chasing,” which journalists familiar with polling say means Inamine is ahead by at least 10 points.
A win by Inamine would be a big setback for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who only a few weeks ago was trumpeting a deal with Okinawa Governor Hirokazu Nakaima on a land reclamation project in Henoko Bay that is needed before long-stalled construction of the envisioned US Marine facility can proceed. US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel also praised the Abe-Nakaima deal, formally announced by Nakaima on December 27.
Anticipating the setback, Abe’s chief cabinet secretary, Yoshihide Suga, said on January 14 that the reelection of Inamine would not alter plans to proceed with the project, which is supposed to replace the US Marine Air Station Futenma, now dangerously located in the center of Ginowan City.
A December poll of Okinawa residents by Asahi found 64% opposed to construction of the new facility, which would extend from the existing Marine Camp Schwab into the pristine waters of Henoko Bay. The elected assemblies in all 41 of the municipalities in Okinawa prefecture, including that of Nago City, have passed resolutions opposing the new facility.
The same December poll found a 57% approval rate for Governor Nakaima, with 65% of his supporters opposed to the landfill project.
However, after having insisted over several years that the new facility be constructed outside of his prefecture, Governor Nakaima apparently succumbed to enormous pressure from the central government, and gave his approval for the land reclamation project. The Abe administration also promised a huge economic aid package for Okinawa, which is the poorest of prefecture in Japan.
Not surprisingly, support for Nakaima has plunged throughout Okinawa, reaching just 24% in the latest Asahi poll.
On January 10, the Okinawa Prefectural Assembly called for Nakaima to resign, and called on the governments of the US and Japan give up plans for the new facility at Henoko.
The polls make clear that the planned new facility is the highest concern for voters heading into Sunday’s election. By contrast, economic development topped the voter list of priorities in Nago’s 2010 mayoral campaign.
Inamine has staked his whole political career on halting the Henoko project. On December 27, he quickly countered Nakaima’s landfill decision with a blistering letter to the governor, arguing that it was “absolutely unacceptable.”
Inamine has since followed with a statement to reporters outlining 10 areas in which the envisioned Henoko project would fall under his jurisdiction as mayor, in effect giving him veto power. These include fuel tank installation for Marine aircraft; reclamation of Henoko’s fishing port; and, water supply and sewage.
Among other findings in the recent polls:
- At least 60% of likely Nago voters oppose the planned Henoko facility, with 20%supportive, and 20% undecided.
- A large majority of “floating” voters unaffiliated with any party are backing Inamine;
- Only 50% of voters who support Komeito, which is in a national alliance with Abe’s (and Nakaima’s) Liberal Democratic Party, are supporting Suematsu, who has the backing of the LDP. While 80% of LDP supporters plan to vote for Suematsu, he will have a hard time winning without more support from Komeito and unaffiliated voters.
It remains to be seen how Nakaima, who has made clear he will not run for reelection when his term expires next October, will respond to an Inamine victory.
In an apparent effort to either save some semblance of political “face,” or to genuinely keep his options open, Nakaima continues to insist that he favors the closure of the Marine Air Station Futenma within 5 years. In his December 27 announcement approving the landfill, Nakaima said that he has a commitment from Prime Minister Abe to work toward that goal. “Prime Minister Abe’s strong leadership is paving a path toward termination of the military operations in the air station within five years,” he said.
Nakaima went on to say: “The central government still has to consider all possible measures to relocate MCAS Futenma out of Okinawa, if temporarily, to end its military operations within five years.”
Even a temporary relocation of the Futenma operations outside of Okinawa would undermine the argument from Washington and Tokyo that Henoko is the only feasible alternative to the current location of Futenma, and that Futenma must remain open until a suitable replacement becomes operational.
Current plans indicate the planned facility at Henoko would not be operational for at least another decade.
A victory by Inamine on Sunday will likely push that targeted completion date out even further, deepening doubts that it will ever be built.
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