The three top contenders to replace the departing Naoto Kan as president of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) and prime minister will face off in a nationally televised debate in Tokyo about 3 hours from now, from 2-4 pm local time. The debate could help provide some clarity to a race that is now too close to call, as many of the 398 Diet members who will cast votes on Monday have yet to make a decision, and will be paying close attention. A second debate is scheduled for Sunday.
The top contenders – Trade Minister Banri Kaieda, Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda, and former Foreign Minister Seiji Maehara – will be joined in the debate by Agriculture Minister Michihiko Kano and former Transport Minister Sumio Mabuchi, but the latter two stand little chance of winning.
With backing from legendary party boss Ichiro Ozawa and former Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, Kaieda seems likely to emerge Monday as the top vote-getter. But he is unlikely to win a 50% majority, triggering a runoff with the contender who finishes second.
Eyes are thus on Maehara and Noda, who will slug it out for the second spot. Once the second runoff spot is determined, will either Noda or Maehara back the other, against Kaieda? There is a great deal of mistrust between the two camps, with Noda harboring misgivings about Maehara’s main backer, DPJ power broker Yoshito Sengoku.
With so much maneuvering taking place among the various DPJ power centers in search of a winning coalition, the possibility remains that last minute deals could alter any expected outcome.
Maehara has two distinct advantages: he is a superior debater, and the latest poll from Asahi, published Saturday morning, showed him favored by 40% of voters, to only 10% for Kaieda. Even though there is not likely to be a Lower House election any time soon, making the “face” of the party less of a pressing a factor in the decision-making of each Diet member, the public’s preference cannot simply be ignored.
Maehara's weakness: While popular with the public, Maehara is actually a controversial figure inside the DPJ, as he has staked out one of the strongest anti-Ozawa positions within the DPJ. A meeting with Ozawa earlier this week lasted only 10 minutes, and Maehara made pretty clear that he remains opposed to Ozawa regaining the influence he has lost inside the DPJ. It would be hard for Maehara to unify the party.
But Kaieda and Noda have weaknesses as well.
Kaieda will be seen as Ozawa's choice, and Ozawa remains one of Japan’s most unpopular political leaders, despite his entrenched (though diminished) position within the DPJ. Moreover, Kaieda was severely criticized by his own group leader, Hatoyama, for his performance as trade and industry minister during the Fukushima nuclear emergency. Kaieda’s strength to be the national leader also came in for questioning earlier in the year when he broke down in tears during a Diet session involving Fukushima.
Noda’s weakness: He has pushed for a “grand coalition” involving the opposition LDP and Komeito, and he has advocated a quick rise in the national consumption tax. Both positions make many Diet members wary. But many members of the departing Kan’s sizeable DPJ group are leaning toward Noda.
The situation might be clearer after the first debate.
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