Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshito Sengoku took steps on Tuesday to deescalate tensions with China stemming from a territorial dispute in the East China Sea that has resulted in the arrest and detention of a Chinese fishing boat captain after a collision between his vessel and Japanese Coast Guard ships.
Sengoku warned against “narrow-minded extreme” nationalism in either Japan or China possibly hijacking the issue, which could result he said in the kind of tension that could threaten regional economic development.
China quickly dismissed Sengoku’s statements, which included the suggestion that Prime Minister Naoto Kan and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao meet in New York later this week while both are attending the UN General Assembly. Beijing had earlier ruled out a Kan-Wen meeting, a stance Wen himself repeated in New York today while speaking to an audience of ethnic Chinese.
Leaving aside Japan-China relations for a moment, Sengoku’s comments tell a lot about the current policy making process in Tokyo.
While nothing Sengoku said runs counter to statements made by Japan’s new foreign minister, Seiji Maehara, and there is no evidence of a rift between the two, Sengoku’s comments do make clear that decision-making over this issue firmly rests in the prime minister’s office, not with Maehara or the Foreign Ministry.
Kan, speaking in New York, backed up Sengoku, saying “I’d like to see people in each position act calmly.”
Maehara is known to harbor considerable concerns about the ongoing buildup of Chinese military power, and his appointment is often popularly portrayed as indicative of a “maturing” of strategic views on the part of the ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ).
Indeed, many foreign policy “realists” in Washington have welcomed Maehara’s appointment, seeing a shift in Tokyo that would bring Japan closer to a strong if not prevailing view in US foreign policy circles that a Cold War-style confrontation with China may not be avoidable.
Sengoku, while not dismissive of the Chinese military buildup, is of the view that the jury is still out as to China’s long-term intentions. In that context, he favors giving the Chinese leadership some benefit of the doubt.
When calling for a meeting of Chinese and Japanese leaders over the current flap, for example, Sengoku said he has “yet to confirm the nuance” of statements by Chinese Premier Wen that some analysts have seen as inflexibly confrontational.
“We also need to consider how we can build strategic, mutually beneficial relations with the country with enormous economic and other kinds of power,” Sengoku said. “From the standpoint of a broader strategic perspective, I think (the governments) should hold a high-level meeting, if possible, urgently.”
None of this implies that Japan is prepared to be pushed around by China on territorial disputes. Indeed, Japan was an enthusiastic supporter when Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced at a meeting of the ASEAN Regional Forum in Hanoi last July that the US would be strongly promoting the principle of peaceful resolution of territorial disputes in the region. President Obama will reinforce that policy in a meeting with ASEAN leaders in New York on Friday.
There are strong, legitimate reasons to dispute China’s territorial claims in the area, and to counter any Chinese elbow-thrusting designed to unilaterally press its claims.
Sengoku just wants to make sure that cool heads are given every chance to prevail. His immediate audience was potential hot-heads in both Tokyo and Beijing. Implicit in Sengoku's comments is a warning to the Chinese leadership that an unreasonably confrontational stance would threaten to undermine politically those in Tokyo endeavoring to find a way out of the immediate problem and to place long-term Japan-China relations on a stable path.
But his comments are relevant to those in Washington who have reached firm conclusions about Chinese intentions, and have already begun plugging a “newly-matured” DPJ into plans to “contain” China.
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